How to Rate the Schools on Your List for Academic Match
Image created by Scarlett Foley, Summer 2024.
Dropping Acceptance Rates and the Scarcity Mindset
Imagine this scenario: you're trying to get tickets for a concert with limited seating. The artist has just released a hit that has gained insane popularity, maybe through a TikTok audio or Instagram trend. The scarcity drives up demand, making it harder to get a ticket simply because so many people want to go. This was recently seen with Sabrina Carpenter's Short n' Sweet tour. Her latest hits like "Espresso" and "Please Please Please" were TikTokified, making it remarkably difficult to acquire a single ticket.
Colleges do something comparable, making their schools seem more "prestigious" through similar strategies. With more applicants and a limited number of available seats, acceptance rates drop, making them seem more exclusive and bringing in more revenue from application fees. Schools that many had considered a good target are no longer a sure thing. Take Holy Cross for example, the acceptance rate dropped from 43% in 2021 to 21% in 2023!
Replace the Dreamscape of Scarcity with the Landscape of Abundance
While mainstream media loves to focus on dire stats like these, the truth is, only the most elite colleges boast such scarcity. In fact, more than 80% of colleges and universities in the U.S. accept more than half of their applicants. And applicants may soon see a further easing in admissions. Because the economic downturn in about 2009 tempered enthusiasm for having babies, there are fewer college-age applicants starting around 2025.
How do you organize your college search against this backdrop? You will want to focus on three components:
FIT: how well a school fits the criteria you decide on, such as your preferences and values
FINANCIAL MATCH: how well a school matches the budget you have determined for your education
ACADEMIC MATCH: how well your academic records (GPA, class rank, standardized test scores) match with those of a school’s admitted students
The Four Rating Categories for Academic Match
The majority of schools accepting the majority of their applicants takes off the pressure, but it is still a good idea to rate each of your schools according to their fit and match to you. Charting Pathways uses the following four categories when rating Academic Match: Good Bet, Good Match, Good Reach, and Wildcard.
Good Bet
So what do we mean by Good Bet? It's similar to a "safety school" in that it involves having a GPA and test scores that exceed the school’s 75th percentile and an acceptance rate higher than 40%. However, the difference lies in the attitude. Referring to a school as a "safety" makes it sound like a last resort, whereas a "Good Bet" school is one you're likely to get into and would be happy to attend. By including 2-3 "Good Bet" schools on your college list, you can increase your chances of receiving multiple acceptances and financial aid offers.
Good Match
Next are Good Match schools. These are colleges that accept more than 40% of applicants and where your GPA and test scores fall between the 50th and 75th percentile of incoming students. It's a good idea to have a few Good Match schools on your college list because these are the ones you can realistically get into and see yourself attending.
Good Reach
Good Reach schools are those where your GPA and test scores line up with the 25th to 50th percentile of students, and the acceptance rate is over 25%. These schools can be tough to get into, but with some hard work, you can create a strong application to improve your chances. Your college list could include about 1-2 Good Reach schools.
Wildcard
Finally, Wildcard schools have acceptance rates of less than 25%, regardless of your academic scores. These schools are the most unpredictable in terms of acceptance, as the low rates make them very competitive. As mentioned before, this draws more applicants to apply simply for the challenge of getting in. Wildcard schools include colleges like the Ivy Leagues, MIT, and Stanford. Just like with concert tickets, schools like these continue to drop their already low acceptance rates each year because of the hyped demand, despite the outstanding qualifications and achievements of their applicants.
To summarize:
Colleges may manipulate data to make their school seem more appealing to potential applicants.
Categorizing schools as Good Bets, Good Matches, Good Reaches, and Wildcards is a good way to assess their academic standing in relation to yours.
Academic fit is just one of many factors to consider when choosing a school. It's important to also think about personal preferences, school values, opportunities, and financial fit to find the best school for you and build a balanced college list.
